HAIFA —The Jordan Valley, a regional "breadbasket," will more and more tempt Palestinians to leave the densely populated Gaza Strip for the West Bank 's open spaces and opportunity for a livelihood.  Israel has no choice, though, but to hold onto the Valley, even in the face of U.S. objections, if it wants to win the war on terror.

Prof. Arnon Soffer, a noted geographer at the University of Haifa , a demographer, and a gadfly who has advised Israeli governments, reaches this conclusion in his newest work, "The Future of the Jordan Valley and Considerations Pro and Con for Its Staying in Israeli Hands."

Soffer acknowledges that giving the Palestinians the fertile Valley will open up another region where they can make a living.  This might relieve economic-demographic pressure on the Gaza Strip, where the lack of reasonable sources of livelihood and general air of despondency help create, among others, suicide bombers. 

There will, he believes, be international and, especially, American pressure to allow this move.  But, he warns, it must be resisted even at the cost of confrontation with Washington and perpetuating the Palestinian conflict.  Palestinian control of both banks of the Jordan , coupled with Islamic terrorism, Soffer argues, will pose a threat to Israel 's very existence.  It will hinder consideration of a military response, gaining a certain strategic depth, and possibly reducing the terrorist threat from the East, he writes.

Soffer, who has lectured at West Point, feels that in the final analysis the United States will continue to go along with Israel .  "Islamic terror will aid us more than empty words," as he puts it.

The University of Haifa geographer recognizes the need for lifting the cover somewhat of the Gaza pressure pot before it explodes into Israel .  The solution he proposes is a west-east corridor—actually two corridors—to relieve the pressure on Israel 's narrow waste. 

Though he terms the corridors "a necessary evil," there is no choice but to use them as a kind of valve, in his opinion.

Israel 's role in maintaining the Jordan Valley is not limited to the army.  "If indeed the Jordan Valley is so important," he says, then Israel must make every effort to settle it.  Up to now, this has proven to be a stinging failure." 

Soffer calls for raising the level of discussion of the matter, claiming that "most of the public is fed on slogans and shallow political declarations."

The Hebrew-language monograph, written with the assistance of Lee Kahaner and Yuval Kenaan of the University of Haifa 's Dept. of Geography, was published by the Chaikin Chair in Geostrategy, which Soffer occupies.

Schwab is an intern in the external relations department of the University of Haifa