2006-06-27-gilad_shalit

By Ira Sharkansky

JERUSALEM—What comes next?

A 19 year old corporal was taken into Gaza as the result of an attack on an Israeli outpost that also killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded others. Individuals claiming to speak for a variety of Palestinian groups claim to hold him and deny holding him. One of the Hamas groups insists on the freeing of several hundred Palestinian prisoners for "information" about the Israeli captive. Palestinian families are demonstrating in Gaza, demanding the release of all Palestinians in Israeli custody, numbering some 8,500, in exchange for the soldier.

Ehud Olmert gave a heroic speech in which he refused all negotiations, threatened massive military action if the man is not released, and said that time for the Palestinian response is rapidly expiring. Pictures show dozens of tanks and other heavy equipment, along with lots of troops, assembling on the borders of Gaza. Israel has proclaimed that it will not allow anyone to enter or leave Gaza. Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian National Authority, will be let out only if he brings the soldier.

The airwaves are filled with commentary by retired military people and others. Speculation ranges from the killing of ministers in the Hamas government, including the prime minister; killing of the Hamas figure in Damascus who seems to be in charge; cutting the electricity and water supplied to Gaza; substantial air bombardments; and artillery strikes on Palestinian neighborhoods to match rocket attacks on Israeli neighborhoods. Reports are that Egypt has put troops on its border with Gaza, to prevent a flow of refugees fleeing from an Israeli assault. So much for Arab unity.

From the Israeli left we hear that Israel should negotiate the soldier's release, and be willing to exchange prisoners for him. From commentators in the broad center of the political spectrum, we hear that Israel has endured enough from the Palestinians by way of rocket attacks from Gaza, and this incident of an attack on an IDF outpost outside of Gaza. It is time to stop being nice guys, and to start killing Palestinians.

The Defense Minister seems to be suffering as much as anyone. He is the leader of the left of center Labor Party, but lacks military credentials. He is criticized from the left for caving into his military advisors, and criticized from the right for being naive about the possibility of settling issues with the Palestinians via negotiations. A retired general in the upper reaches of the Labor Party (a member of Knesset who has been upset at not being named a minister by the party leader) has said that the country has been paying the Defense Minister's tuition while he learns the craft of defense.

Will Israel attack? With what force and with what targets? Or will it wait, dither, and eventually agree to a prisoner exchange?

There is a long Jewish history of being willing to pay high prices for Jewish hostages. Israel has agreed to lopsided deals by which it freed hundreds of prisoners in exchange for the bodies of soldiers, and even for a retired security officer who was enticed to Lebanon to buy drugs.

Chances are that a serious Israeli attack will produce the death of the soldier being held captive. We do not want video pictures of his beheading in the name of Islam.

What may complicate this further is a report that there is another captive, perhaps a member of a Hasidic group that insists on praying at what it says is Joseph's tomb in Shechem (Nablus). The IDF has tried to keep them away from that nest of terror, and skeptics say that the tomb most likely holds the remains of a medieval Arab sheikh. If one of the otherworldly Hasidism really is a guest of the Palestinians, there may be a change in the constellation of those demanding action. For some he will be as important as the soldier. For others, he will recall the argument about how much Israel should give up for an unlucky drug dealer.

If you cannot tolerate uncertainty, this is not for you. This is not a time for prediction, or for investing in Gaza real estate. We are already past the 48 hour deadline that Israel is reported to have set for the soldier's release. The buildup of forces is not proceeding with maximum speed, and is said to be another day from being complete.

Sharkansky is an emeritus member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem