2006-10-04-Palestinian strife

By Ira Sharkansky

JERUSALEM—Has the Palestinian civil war finally begun?

It is not clear to us or, apparently, to them.

Palestine has not for some time--perhaps never was--a peaceful place. It has not developed the traits of a community, with loyalty to the nation capable of competing with loyalty to family, clan, locality, region, religious leadership, or political movement. Moreover, an incidence of arms that would make the National Rifle Association jealous means that personal, family, or larger squabbles can become bloody, very quickly.

Especially since the Fatah party, pretty much synonymous with the Palestine Liberation Organization of Yassir Arafat and then Mahmoud Abbas, lost its monopoly control of the Palestine National Authority, there have been occasional dust-ups between gunmen allied with Fatah and those of Hamas. It has gotten worse with the cut-off of international funding, and perhaps eight months without full (or any) salaries for security personnel, school teachers, health workers, and other public sector employees. The Palestinian economy, especially that of Gaza, is in deep distress. We hear estimates of unemployment in the range of 50 percent and no income for many of those who have jobs.

The month-long holiday of Ramadan, with its emphasis on fasting, feasting, and gift-giving adds to frustration when the economy is in misery.

And since July, the IDF has been active in Gaza, trying to make life difficult for those who are holding an Israeli soldier, or firing rockets at Israeli settlements, and most likely making life even more difficult for everybody.

It is not clear to me who is shooting at who among the Palestinians. Rather than organized armies, the pictures we see are groups of young men firing at other groups of young men. In the latest violence that peaked last Sunday, reports are that 10 Palestinians have been killed and more than 100 injured.

For those expecting something like Bull Run or Gettysburg, look somewhere else. This is a low-level conflict among competing gangs in a society without much social unity, too many weapons, and not much else to do.

From what we see and hear, no faction has a clear advantage of arms or public support. And with the borders of the West Bank and Gaza closed—albeit imperfectly—it is not easy for outside supporters of one or another group to provide large scale transfers of men or munitions.

So the conflict seems likely to continue, perhaps with ups and downs as leaders of both Fatah and Hamas call for it to stop, but seem unable or unwilling to call off their fighters. Perhaps they have no fighters under their control. We have seen over the past six years that national discipline is weak at best. Small groups do what they want: recruiting and preparing suicide bombers, seizing and holding an Israeli soldier and resisting efforts to arrange his release, firing crude rockets toward Israel, and firing at other Palestinians thought to be the enemies of the moment.

Is it good for the Jews or bad for the Jews?

All this may be good for Israel in the short run if it distracts fighters from making efforts to kill Jews. It is hard to imagine a benefit for Israel in the long run, insofar as no group seems willing or able to gain control of the Authority in order to stop the violence and begin reasonable negotiations for an end to our conflict.

Recent news is that the likes of Jimmy Carter, Condoleeza Rice, and Husni Mubarek are calling for things like a return to the roadmap, the end of Israeli occupation, strengthening Mahmoud Abbas, and creating a Palestinian State to live at peace alongside a secure Israel. Some expressing these slogans may be well informed, but cynical, or paying lip service to what is politically correct. Insofar as the Palestinians are in the middle of the Middle East, and they seem unready for peace, there is little for those of us who are close to them to do beyond defending ourselves.

That may mean continuing to pick off individuals on our target list as they expose themselves, pressuring some Palestinians to inform us about others planning mayhem against us, and doing what we can to destroy the workshops that produce those crude rockets that occasionally make it out of Gaza. We decided some time ago that we should not have to expose any of our people to the threats of suicide bombers, drive-by shootings, or crude rockets. If our responses are "disproportionate" to the threats against us, if they add to the pressure within Palestine and increase violence among Palestinians, it is their problem and not ours.

Paradise this is not.

Sharkansky is an emeritus member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem