2006-03-23-Israel_election

By Ira Sharkansky

JERUSALEM—It is common to describe economics is the dismal science, insofar as it focuses on resources, that are always less than required to meet all desires.

Politics, in contrast, is the happy science, marked by individuals with overblown egos promising to meet all the wants in order to garner support.

Israel's proportional representation provides an ideal stage for the display of the happy science. Almost all of the two dozen or so parties running for seats in the Knesset display the wants of the nation. Virtually none take into account limited resources. Economists are left at home, or required to put their training on the shelf before being allowed to speak for a party.

The World Bank counts Israel among the world's richest economies. Fine. But it is at the lower end of the list, above only Greece and Portugal. Israel's politicians hear about the programs on offer in northwestern Europe, and demand those for Israel. But Israel is poorer. And Israel's limited resources support security forces several times more expensive than those of wealthy European countries that rely on others to look after their defense.

The one party that is prominent in emphasizing sacrifice is the party likely to lead the government. Kadima is selling the idea of removing some Jewish settlements from the West Bank. That, and the less than charismatic personality of its leading figure, may explain its slide in the polls since Ariel Sharon exited politics and enjoyed a couple of weeks of being sanctified by media that ignored all the sins that had been emphasized until then. It is in the Jewish tradition to praise the dead. One does not hear criticism during memorial visits, and seldom even a bit of humor about the dearly departed. Bastards turn into saints at their death. Sharon has not died. One day he may wake up from his coma to read what stood as his obituaries. It is doubtful that he will be able to do more than that.

The promises of other parties are more suitable to political theater than to any serious discussion of policy analysis. The leading candidate of the Labor Party, Amir Peretz, has been true to his Labor Federation roots by emphasizing the need to raise the minimum wage. He has not commented on an analysis that appeared in Ha'aretz that showed Israel's minimum wage is already about the highest in the world, in relation to a per capita measure of overall economic resources.

The leader of Likud, Benyamin Netanyahu, admits that he may have angered voters by his policy as finance minister to reduce payments to the aged, poor, and large families. Now he promises to backtrack, and solve the social problems he caused. He also claims that the economic progress due to his policy provides the resources for dealing with the needy. He does not consider that the recent increase in Israel's economic well being might have something to do with an international economic recovery affecting countries that buy what Israel sells, and whose investors send money to Israeli industries.

Except for Likud, right wing nationalist and religious parties are doing well in the polls. Moreover, their supporters are angry about withdrawal from Gaza, intense, and likely to turn out in high numbers. Voters who are secular and inclined to the center are demonstrating a higher than usual disinterest in the election. Many are answering that they have not made up their minds. The implications of all this is that Olmert will have trouble enacting and/or implementing a policy of further withdrawals from Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Beyond the major and middle-sized parties, one can find a great lack of restraint in what parties offer their potential voters. You can probably guess what the Pensioners' Party is offering the voters. Israel like other western countries has a large and growing proportion of us old folks. Some are truly poor, especially immigrants who did not work here long enough to build up entitlements, and must rely on the minimum payments that do not allow them to live without help from younger family members or soup kitchens that feed them hot meals. Many of the aged who are better off would enjoy an increase in their National Insurance payments. One poll indicates that the Pensioners' Party might, for the first time, win enough votes for two members, which is the minimum for entering the Knesset. Some polls show them capable of winning three or even four seats.

A Green Leaf party has returned once again. It is trying for its first successful campaign by expanding its basic demand of legalizing marijuana for recreational and medical purposes. It also demands greater rights for homosexuals and lesbians, including single sex marriages. A clever ad campaign has attracted attention, and brought the party to the verge of getting into the Knesset.

A Green Party demands environmental protection at least as good as the best in the world. Israelis, alas, are more interested in issues of security and basic well-being. The Greens do not look like they will make it to the Knesset.

There are several extreme right wing parties and religious parties trying to get traction by campaigning to transfer Arabs to one place or another, and against the imperfections of more established religious and nationalist parties. An Ethiopian Party is somewhere out there, not seeming to make much of an impression. What had been a successful, middle size anti-religious party has split into two due to personality squabbles, and neither of the factions is showing enough support to enter the Knesset. A retired general has not made a dent by emphasizing corruption, due perhaps to his poor ad campaign and his refusal to align with other small parties that had offered him a place on their list. A group of Arab parties will get their usual 10 or so seats. Most likely they will spend the next few years reciting their usual criticisms of whatever the Jewish government is doing. I have not noticed a taxi drivers' party in this year's competition. Perhaps it coalesced with something else below my radar screen.

My favorite candidate for the most bizarre is a party that combines a concern to find the true killer of Yitzhak Rabin with a strident anti-feminism. Its ads criticize women and the left, and emphasize the poor shake given fathers in divorce and child custody. No one has explained to me the connection between its view of the assassination and its other demands. Anger is the most prominent feature of the few media spots available to it as a new party without Knesset members, and it has not made a dent in the polls.

We will know the results late Tuesday night or early the next day. Then the story will only be half over. It will be another month or two before the winner can announce the make up of a governing coalition.

Sharkansky is an emeritus member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem