2005-12-13-israeli

By Ira Sharkansky

The current Israeli election campaign recalls 1972 in the United States. Richard Nixon was widely viewed as a knave, but quite a few voters saw a fool when they looked at George McGovern. Promising an immediate withdrawal from Vietnam, a massive reduction in the defense budget, and the distribution of $1,000 to every citizen got him 38 percent of the vote. Richard Nixon deepened his reputation with heavy military losses and deception about Vietnam, as well as Watergate and some other craziness. John Kennedy's glorification obscured his responsibility for the onset of serious United States involvement in Southeast Asia. Nixon is blamed for more than he did, but I am not sure he would not win the 1972 election again if it was replayed with all that is known about what happened then and later.

And now the parallels to Israel's election, scheduled for late March, 2006.

No doubt Ariel Sharon has a knave's reputation. It features elements from ignoring orders during his military career, claims that he deceived Prime Minister Menachem Begin about the war in Lebanon that Sharon managed as Defense Minister, his promotion of Jewish settlements in the occupied territories, his flip to unilateral disengagement, and charges of corruption in election finance that have his son waiting sentencing and have all but touched the old man. As Richard Nixon is unfairly given too much responsibility for Vietnam, so Sharon is given too much responsibility for Intafada. It is called Intafada al-Aqsa because of his visit to the courtyard near al-Aqsa Mosque in 2000. Just as it is politically risky to accuse St John Kennedy of ordering the crucial escalations of United States involvement in Vietnam, so it is risky to accuse St Yitzhak Rabin of advancing Israeli-Palestinian violence via his signing on to the Oslo Accords. It is easier to blame Nixon and Sharon. Assassinations do wonders for political reputations.

If Sharon is not enough of a knave, the affiliation of Tzachi Hanegbi to his party adds to the aura. Hanegbi's reputation began with his activity years ago as a ruffian in Likud campus politics. Most recently he has been suspended as a government minister due to charges of corruption in appointments. Unfriendly commentators say that being subject to criminal charges is a prerequisite for a high place on the election ticket of Sharon's Progress Party.

Who is the fool in this election? Perhaps the word is too strong, but Amir Peretz is a candidate. He came from a position as head of the Labor Federation to unseat Shimon Peres as leader of the Labor Party.

Peretz advocates a substantial move to the left, after twenty, or even thirty years of the Labor Party abandoning its socialist roots and embracing the emerging Yuppie sector of upper-income, upper-education Israel. Labor Party leaders have paid lip-service to the needs of the unfortunate, but have concentrated on a platform of accommodation with the Palestinians. Shimon Peres' slogan of the New Middle East has captured attention among Jews here and elsewhere. It pretty much went nowhere, and had something to do with an old man's defeat by the energetic Peretz. Lots of Arabs express in word and deed that they see nothing wrong with the Old Middle East.

Amir Peretz is not a copy of George McGovern. So far there is no parallel to McGovern's posture on Vietnam. Peretz has not made a point of saying what he would do about the Palestinians. But he is full tilt on economics. He wants a significant increase in the minimum wage, and a roll back of reductions in welfare benefits. This makes Labor Party industrialists and other entrepreneurs nervous. Israel has poverty, and a shrill intelligentsia that urges greater welfare efforts, but it has universal health insurance, programs for income and public housing. The private sector has mounted an array of feeding stations for those hurt by reductions in welfare. Israel's income protections are not be up to those of western Europe, but neither does it have the wealth of those countries. And its security activities are expensive. Predictions are that an increase in the minimum wage will increase unemployment.

The darling of the newly awakened left in the Labor Party is a radio personality who has long trumpeted social justice. Sheli Yehimovitch is articulate to the point of being charismatic, but is tarnished with her earlier admiration of the Israeli Communist Party. This is not Joe McCarthy country, but neither is it a hotbed of socialist ideology.

And just coming on the scene is yet another party that claims that it is the true advocate the poor. It is led by Vicki Knafu, a middle age single mother who made a name by walking from her home town of Mitzpe Ramon to Jerusalem, and setting up a tent city of advocates that existed opposite the prime minister's office for several months. When her movement showed signs of falling apart she accelerated the decline by posing for a nudie magazine. Now she appears in full dress, but age and poor judgment did their damage.

It is still three and one-half months to the election. The polls show the party of knaves winning 40 seats, while Labor, the closest rival, barely breaks 20.

Sharkansky is an emeritus member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem